SSP House Race Ratings Changes: 11/03

We here at SSP were skeptical of Larry Kissell’s rematch bid for a long while, in large part because he seemed to be denying himself a chance to be competitive due to his lackluster fundraising. (We never bought the “I’m not from a wealthy district” excuse – just check out Eric Massa’s fundraising.) Yet he finally stepped it up in the third quarter, and then three polls in a row showed him with a lead.

More importantly, the DCCC jumped in in a big way. In fact, no district has seen a bigger disparity in party committee spending – about $2.5 million to zero. Indeed, it seems that the NRCC has given up on sad-sack Robin Hayes, putting Kissell in a commanding position to finish off the Republican once and for all. (David)

There’s no question that the momentum lies with the Democrats in this Omaha-based CD. For the first time since 1994 (the last year that this district had Democratic representation), Dems have built up a voter registration lead in Douglas County (which makes up over 80% of the district’s population). Esch has been aided significantly by the efforts of the Obama campaign, which has an aggressive field campaign in place here to steal the district’s electoral vote from John McCain, as well as the DCCC, which has backed Esch up with over $750,000 in independent expenditures in the past few weeks.

Terry only led Esch by a single point in the most recently-released poll of this district, and the DC scuttlebutt indicates that Terry is only clinging to a small lead in his own polling. That might have been enough to hold on in other years, but no incumbent under 50% and feeling their challenger’s breath on the back of their neck can be considered especially favored, especially with uncertainties surrounding the turnout of a newly-energized pool of African-American voters in this district. This one should be be close. (James)

The DCCC hasn’t jumped in with guns blazing in this district, but there’s still reason for optimism in this R+13 district that wanders all the way from the Houston suburbs to Austin suburbs. Polling shows former TV judge Larry Joe Doherty within arm’s length of incument Mike McCaul, including a recent R2K poll with Doherty down by just 4. McCaul’s fundraising has been lackluster, and he’s been nervous about early voting patterns in this district. This is also a district that has changed dramatically even since 2004; population-wise, it’s the fastest-growing district in Texas and most of that growth is non-white. McCaul still has to be favored to pull it out, but Doherty is poised for an upset. (Crisitunity)

Our full ratings chart is available here.